Revolution and disruption rarely stem from the poor and destitute, but from what Alexis de Tocqueville described as “a revolution of rising expectations”. After all, it was the bourgeoisie who forged both the American and French revolutions. In the 20th century, it was the educated middle classes, often underpaid and feeling unappreciated, who flocked to Vladimir Lenin’s banner or that of the Nazi Party.

Today we may again be creating an assertive and angry class — as evidenced in the recent LA riots and the pro-Palestine protests on US campuses over the last year and a half — made up of degree holders. We can see this in recent reports that show the job market getting tougher for graduates. Hit hardest are those professionals on the “soft” side of the economy (finance, accounting, law, coding) whose jobs are increasingly threatened by the rise of artificial intelligence.

These industries tend to have a higher proportion of humanities graduates and countries in the West more generally have a problem with elite overproduction. As AI grows, there won’t be enough jobs to go round, and even if those graduates do get a job, their employers, with so many candidates to choose from, won’t pay well.  

These developments may be felt most by upper-middle class young women, who make up almost two thirds of humanities graduates. This demographic has also been the driving force for campus radicalism. If they were alienated before by the patriarchy and capitalism, just wait till they can’t find a decent job and lose economic power.

More broadly the changing labour dynamics also undermine the future of universities, now the prime institutional bulwark of the American Left. The roots of this crisis were being dug up by economic forces well before Donald Trump started attacking them. This is due in large part to demographic declines among the young: by 2029 there will be 700,000 fewer people entering high school than in 2010. Since 2011 enrolments have fallen by roughly 15%. The ratio of college students to the total American population has declined even more, by around 20%.

At the same time, employers are increasingly disappointed with the quality of college students, according to the Harvard Business Review. Even the students know the score: more than half (53%) of these college graduates feel unqualified for an entry-level job in their field with nearly half (42%) admitting they did not have all the skills listed in the job description.

Of course, some college degrees are still worth more than the paper they are printed on. People with training in hands-on professions — notably in medical fields as well as technology and engineering — remain in high demand. In contrast, the humanities, where faculty tends to be overwhelmingly Left-of-centre, have lost 25% of their students since 2012.

The revolution in aspirations is changing the way young people approach their future. More are looking to acquire skills that provide a higher chance of leading to a middle-class life. For years, young people have been told that a college degree is essential for a good career, but many young people have lost faith in this through bitter experience.

More are seeking careers in the trades. As college enrolment has dropped between 2020 and 2023, trade schools have grown by 10%. Trade schools are also far less expensive, and leave their graduates with more opportunity and less debt. In contrast to many traditional college-enabled professions, there is an ever-growing shortage of industrial and craft workers. Indeed, one recent survey found that 83% of Gen Z Americans feel that learning a skilled trade can be a better pathway to economic security than college, including 90% of those already holding college degrees.

Into this decaying picture, enter Donald Trump and an administration hell-bent on undermining the professional-university economy. Certainly people who work in DEI, teach critical race theory, or hold seminars on gender issues, are threatened by Trump’s budget cuts and federal restructuring. After all, if there’s no Green New Deal, where does a newly-minted environmental engineer or diversity expert get a job?

Ultimately, what one Marxist scholar described as “the swelling population of college graduates” will be increasingly radicalised, not only ill-paid but disrespected by others, including by their peers who have recognised the economic reality. This sort of economic climate is fertile soil for anger and resentment. Could it lead to a revolution? Non-humanities grads may prove less than sympathetic to the protests of such indulged radicals.

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Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

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